Precise Forecasts Masquerade As Accurate Ones.

Plenty Of Pundits Have Really High Iqs, But They Don't Have Any Discipline In How They Look At The World, And So It Leads To A Lot Of Bullshit, Basically.

It's A Little Strange To Become A Kind Of Symbol Of A Whole Type Of Analysis.

Actually, One Of The Better Indicators Historically Of How Well The Stock Market Will Do Is Just A Gallup Poll, When You Ask Americans If You Think It's A Good Time To Invest In Stocks, Except It Goes The Opposite Direction Of What You Would Expect. When The Markets Going Up, It In Fact Makes It More Prone Toward Decline.

Shakespeare's Plays Often Turn On The Idea Of Fate, As Much Drama Does. What Makes Them So Tragic Is The Gap Between What His Characters Might Like To Accomplish And What Fate Provides Them.

Whenever You Have Dynamic Interactions Between 300 Million People And The American Economy Acting In Really Complex Ways, That Introduces A Degree Of Almost Chaos Theory To The System, In A Literal Sense.